Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures and dry weather will prevail into the weekend with warming conditions expected next week.

DISCUSSION

A trough will cross to the north of the region today but with almost no moisture around we won't see any precipitation as it pushes through. What we will see is cooler air arriving along with some gusty winds. Southwest winds early this morning will shift to the northwest with speeds around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph across the region. Expect the strongest winds to be across eastern Arizona through this afternoon with some gusts around 25-35 mph.

As the trough pushes further to the east, winds will shift to the northeast tonight into Saturday. Winds will remain elevated overnight with gusts up to 25 mph along and southwest of the higher terrain. Colder air will find its way into the region with locations sheltered from the winds dropping down into the teens to lower 20s. In areas where the winds remain up overnight, expect temperatures to remain warmer.

Brief ridging will return over the weekend with a more southerly flow by Sunday. Temperatures will start to warm again with winds becoming gusty at times. Several shortwaves will move through the mid-level flow with the first arriving later Sunday into Monday. Moisture is limited but lift looks to be enough for a few isolated showers to develop, mainly across the higher terrain.

Models continue to show a deep upper low developing over the eastern Pacific. The low will track towards the California coast early in the week but the models diverge with different locations and timing, leading to lower confidence on how our weather may be impacted through the second half of next week.

AVIATION...Friday 17/12Z through Saturday 18/12Z

VFR conditions. W-SW winds 5-15 kts, becoming NW-NE 10-20 kts after 14Z. Winds will subside to 5-10 kts after 02Z. NE winds remain elevated downwind of the terrain overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/12Z through Monday 20/12Z...VFR conditions. N-E winds 5-15 kts on Saturday, becoming S-SE 10-20 kts on Sunday. NE winds remain elevated downwind of the terrain Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday

Dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. Northerly winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts over Apache County today, then becoming northeasterly at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry conditions with warming temperatures. South winds at 10 to 20 mph on Sunday, becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph on Monday, increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph on Tuesday.

FGZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.