Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather ongoing across far eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota today.

- Near critical to critical expected each day through Thursday.

- Severe weather possible Thursday with a rain/snow mix Thursday night/Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

..Synopsis

A low amplitude ridge remains fixed across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS today with an upstream large low off the pacific coast. While ridging remains dominant through the mid week troughing does eventually emerge from the northern and central rockies by Wednesday evening with some scenarios bringing a closed upper low to the Dakotas Thursday and an attendant chance for severe weather. As troughing digs across the existing ridging slow across CONUS becomes zonal with minimal steering of the now occluded upper low to our north or potentially even directly over us (implications on temperatures and rain chances). While clusters do little to capture its exact position or depth by the end of forecast period they all keep it near our area with any shortwave activity well to our south, along with any warmth through the weekend.

- Fire Weather

The ongoing Red Flag today doesnt need to much detail but overall low RH across all of our Minnesota counties especially west central where RH is already widely under 30% from Fergus Falls to Bemidji. Winds are nearing their peak for the day with gusts dropping off by 6pm and sustained winds falling below 15kts by 7pm. Overall the RFW may be slightly larger than weather conditions would currently verify but fuel conditions support it nonetheless. Tomorrow will maintain the low afternoon RH of 25-35% for much of the region (locally lower) through winds will be up to 15kts and thus only near critical conditions mainly across west central Minnesota where fuels are primed.

With limited precipitation expected through the midweek and ridging amplifying across the Northern Plains, ERC maximums should continue to rise with HRB values indicating ongoing dead fuels. At this time, the timeframe of greatest concern is Wednesday afternoon. While NBM relative humidities appear fairly high (30-35%), this is mainly due to limited CAM impact on NBM output and will likely fall towards more critical criteria as we get closer to mid-week. At the same time strong southerly winds of 20kts gusting 30kts are likely. The heightened fire weather pattern will eventually end as widespread precipitation pushes into the region late week.

- Thursday Weather Bingo

Get those spring weather bingo cards ready. Thursday is gonna throw just about everything at the northern plains with an upper low moving into the ND/MN vicinity by the afternoon coincident with diurnal heating. With it may be a narrow ribbon on surface based instability on the order of a few hundred to 1500j/kg of MLCAPE and shear profiles typical of cold core severe weather events. Strong low level curvature near the low and back mid/upper level profiles leading the superb storm relative venting of precip and great low level stretching. Would think all severe hazards are possible if this scenario unfolds. If something more tame or misaligned occurs then a ceiling may be more in the marginal severe to general thunderstorm territory in the afternoon. In either case strong southerly winds through the morning will transport warm dry air north with afternoon Min RH in the 30-35% range (likely too high due to a lack of CAM influence as discussed above) with over lapping 25kt gusting 35kt winds. There is a low chance to reach Wind Advisory criteria in our west/SW Thursday but medium chance for critical fire weather. Further west in ND Precip on the west/SW side of the low will be of a more frozen variety with snow with snow overlapping with strong winds. While we initially start out with rain and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon temps quickly fall from the 60s and 70s around noon to the 30s by sunrise Friday. This will promote a wintry mix overnight into the day on Friday with the best chance (30% chance) for any accumulating snow in the Devils Lake Basin.

Things remaining seasonably cool through the weekend into early next week as the upper low stalls over us/north of us with mostly cloudy skies through the period and highs looking to stay in the 40s and 50s. Lows will at the same time will be in the 20s and 30s so for you ambitious gardeners be sure to bring in any sensitive plants you may already planted. Seasonal frost/freeze headlines will likely start up in the next 2 weeks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR skies with gusts through the early afternoon in excess of 30kts at times. 30 kt gust timing may vary by an hour or two: GFK through 20z, FAR through 21z, and TVF through 22z. Winds eventually dying off after sunset with northerly winds turning southerly tomorrow through light and variable in the morning. Really no other aviation concerns besides the gusts and winds pivoting SW to NW through the afternoon.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040.