Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated weak showers and thunderstorms today.

- Cooler over the next weak with periodic chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..Synopsis

Upper low across central Canada will remain in place through at least the next week. Ensemble guidance in good agreement leading to higher confidence with the overall synoptic pattern. The main uncertainty will be the individual shortwaves rounding the main upper low that will lead to shower chances across our region. All in all anticipate period shower chances and cooler temperatures. Impacts should be minimal given lack of instability. There could be a few sneaky marginal severe days (especially for hail given the lower freezing levels) if evapotranspiration from crops provides additional boundary layer moisture.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A steady west-northwest wind direction today sustained 12-25 mph with gusts up to 30 kts. Kept gusts 25-29 kts in the TAFs, but could be briefly higher above 30 kts. Scattered CU development today with bases becoming around 4000-6000 ft agl - could be periods of BKN cigs. Another wave rounding the main upper low will likely bring a period of more widespread MVFR cigs Saturday but late morning.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.