Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely Monday in northwest Minnesota. Near critical conditions may develop in southeast North Dakota if gusty winds align with low relative humidity.

- Additional chances for near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern brings rain and thunderstorm chances to the region Thursday and rain and snow chances Friday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Coordination with WFOs MPX/DLH and issued a red flag warning for all of NW and west central MN. MPX/DLH will do the same. MIFC requested a red flag warning even if conditions are marginal and it is a bit more marginal RH wise in far NW MN but there it is windiest. Lowest RH values in Bemidji-Fergus Falls area with mid 20s...risk of low 20s RH percent. Winds though not quite as strong as far NW MN where a period of southwest winds sustatined at 15-25 mph and gusts 35 mph will occur. Period of strongest winds 15-25 mph gusts 35-40 mph in parts of the Red River valley and southeast ND will occur just prior to lowest RH values as a surface trough comes in from the northwest. Will mention near critical fire weather in fire weather discussion for southeast ND as RH values of 24-27 percent are forecast and if temps are 1-2 degrees warmer or winds higher longer than red flag conditions may be met.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

..Synopsis

Heights are beginning to increase across the region this afternoon as large scale ridging begins to propagate towards our area. This will allow for increasing temperatures through the week and near daily potential for critical fire weather conditions as dry air lingers through the week.

For today, expect slightly warmer conditions beneath generally light winds and minimal weather impacts. As we progress into the evening and overnight, freezing temperatures are expected to return once again with minimal weather impacts.

Temperatures through the week should peak into the 70s and 80s, with the warmest temperatures felt in the far south. As ridging moves away, southwest flow will develop across the United States, bringing a high potential for rain and eventually snow as mean temperatures fall towards the weekend. Some instability does advect into the region and with a steep surface flow propagating over us, there is the potential for early season strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, but predictability is low at this time given concerns with surface-based versus elevated convection, which will largely drive hazards.

..FIRE WEATHER

Large scale warm temperatures through the week combined with limited moisture return are expected to create near critical to critical fire weather conditions through the week.

For tomorrow, southerly winds are expected to increase with sustained winds generally between 20-30 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph by late morning/early afternoon as a strong southerly jet propagates east. Moisture return from southerly winds is expected to be minimal with dewpoints ranging in the low to mid 30s, allowing for relative humidity values to approach 20% by mid to late afternoon. The maxima of the jet is expected to be over northwest Minnesota when peak mixing will occur, so the expectation is for critical conditions (low RH and high wind gusts) to mainly remain in northwest Minnesota. Having said that, critical conditions could spread westward into eastern North Dakota if winds align with low relative humidity. At a minimum, expect near critical conditions to develop in southeast North Dakota. Towards the mid to late afternoon, a weak cold front may bring relative humidity values up to 30-50% briefly, but a substantial wind shift of 90-150 degrees is expected behind this, so fire concerns are expected to continue.

With limited precipitation expected through the week and ridging amplifying across the Northern Plains, ERC maximums should continue to rise with HRB values indicating ongoing dead fuels. These combined with relative humidity values through the week lends to expectations that at least near critical conditions can be expected through Wednesday every afternoon with the potential to push into critical conditions on days with gustier winds. At this time, the greatest probability timeframe for that is Wednesday afternoon. While NBM relative humidities appear fairly high (25-30%), this is mainly due to limited CAM impact on NBM output and will likely fall towards more critical criteria as we get closer to mid-week. The heightened fire weather pattern will eventually end as a widespread precipitation system pushes into the region late week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

No major changes to this set of TAFs. Southerly winds are forecasted to increase overnight. Gusts will exceed 30 knots at KGFK, KFAR and KTVF for a period Monday morning into the early afternoon. At KDVL, LLWS overnight will be replaced with a period of gusty winds in the morning, but it is uncertain if gusts reach 30 knots. If they do, it will be for a brief period, and therefore was left out of the TAF. Winds will take longest to reach KBJI, and should not be quite as strong, gusting into the mid 20 knot range. Winds will die down from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. Eventually, winds will shift to the north late in the TAF period. Ceilings will remain VFR throughout the forecast period.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.