Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions today, especially across northeast Georgia where a Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- Dry conditions the rest of the week will lead to daily fire weather concerns, before rain chances increase this weekend.

- Temperatures start the week around normal but will warm back up into the mid to upper 80s by mid-week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Dry and Gradually Warming:

Starting off the work week with a morning that will feel chilly to some, even though temperatures will be around normal for this time of year, sitting in the low to mid 40s. Deep northwest flow and surface high pressure building over the area will keep skies mostly clear through Tuesday, and lead to a slight warming trend back to above normal temperatures. Highs today will range from the upper 60s in the north GA mountains, to the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the area. After temps drop into the upper 40s to low 50s tonight, they will warm into the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday afternoon. While these conditions sound pleasant and hazard-free, we will actually have fire weather concerns, which are discussed in their own section below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Dry and warm weather will persist Wednesday through Friday, keeping fire weather concerns on the docket each afternoon. This dry, warm weather comes courtesy of the surface high pressure continuing to extend westward from the Atlantic alongside midlevel ridging. By late Friday, the ridge begins to flatten and shunt eastward as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest.

Rain Chances Next Weekend

This front will lead to a welcome increase in rain chances despite the weekend timing. The initial front looks likely to become stationary in our vicinity by Saturday as midlevel flow becomes more zonal. This should allow for a more active weather pattern from the weekend and beyond as a series of disturbances brings the chance for at least scattered convection. While it remains too early to talk specifics on rainfall amounts, anything will be welcome to hopefully hit pause on the concerning drought conditions. Additionally, more favorable severe parameters initially likely remain west of Georgia, though that could change beyond the current end of the long term period headed into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period under mostly SKC. Light NW winds early this morning increase to around 8-10 kts with gusts 18-20kts after 16Z, then weaken back to 5 kts or less after 00Z this evening. Winds may briefly turn out of the NNE at times throughout the period, but will primarily be NNW.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High in all elements.

Culver

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A dry airmass settling over the region will likely lead to daily fire weather concerns through most of this week. Today, the combination of very dry fuels and relative humidity falling to the 20-30% range will lead to critical fire conditions across much of the area during the afternoon and evening. This is especially true across northeast Georgia, where we will also have breezy NW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged due to the potential for fires to rapidly spread.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ006>009-013>016-021>025-027-034-035.