Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through Saturday. A few strong storms possible Friday across North GA.

- Heat indices rising into the upper 90s to low 100s are forecast today through the weekend.

- Growing confidence in a wetter pattern returning to North and Central Georgia early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Patchy fog and some low clouds have developed this morning per GOES Nighttime Microphysics Imagery. Expect this trend to continue through the morning particularly in areas that received any rainfall yesterday afternoon. Any fog should clear at or shortly after sunrise.

Weak ridging at the midlevels remains in place across the Southern U.S. with high pressure at the surface. Thus both today (Thursday) and Friday's forecast will favor continued warm and muggy conditions with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon. The only difference for Friday being slightly higher rain chances across far North GA due to an approaching cold front. While most of the upper level support looks to remain to our north with this system, the front interacting with the increasingly warm and muggy boundary layer may result in more moderate instability, mainly over parts of North GA. Thus, a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds are possible Friday afternoon. As this system approaches, ridging also becomes more amplified and temperatures will likely be the warmest we've seen so far across some locations. Forecast highs today will climb into the upper 80s at the higher elevations of North GA to low- mid 90s elsewhere. Heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s are likely this afternoon for most places outside of the North GA mountains. Temperatures will be a a tick warmer on Friday with similar heat indices. Current forecast values remain just shy of Heat Advisory criteria but will need to be closely monitored in future forecasts.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The extended periods start off with typical summertime diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Saturday. A mid-level ridge over the region will keep isolated precip chances, but sufficient moisture (PWAT values of 1.5" or more) and heating will still allow convection to fire. While no widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time, but we could see a strong storm or two each day, capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. precip chances will begin to increase Sun as a weakening front pushes into the Southeast and stalls across central GA. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s each day, with heat index values in the 95-100 range across North GA, and 100-110 over Central GA.

On Sunday, model guidance is in good agreement on the ridge breaking down as a potent shortwave dives across the Midwest and sends a front into the Southeast. This will be the start of a very wet period lasting through the middle next week, as longwave troughing establishes over most of the eastern US and flow over Georgia turns out of west to southwest. Moisture surging in off the Gulf will bring PWAT values up into the 1.5" to 2.25" range by Monday and continuing through Wednesday. This will support numerous to widespread showers and storms with increased flooding concerns through day 7. If stronger forcing comes into play, which some guidance is showing with approaching fronts/shortwaves, that would only increase the flash flood threat. Severe weather may also become a threat, depending on the timing and location of any stronger forcing moving across the region. While it will remain quite humid, the amount of cloud cover and increased rain chances will knock temperatures down into the 80s Tue and Wed.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 554 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period. Light SW wind will increase to 4-6kts after 15z. Sct Cu 3-6kft psbl thru the period. Iso shra/tsra psbl after 16z but chances and confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

High confidence on all elements.

07

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.