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000 FXUS64 KEPZ 201759 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1159 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Isolated lowland and scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms early this evening mainly east of the Rio Grande.

- Dry southwest flow remainder of the week producing breezy to windy afternoons and above normal temperatures.

- Next weekend will be dry with breezy to windy afternoons, and high temperatures a few degrees above average.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

We have just enough moisture in place and just enough lift to give us a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. The best chances for thunderstorms will be in area mountains and east of the Rio Grande. We could see some gusty outflow winds associated with the thunderstorms. With the somewhat dry environment near the surface, downdraft CAPE's of 1,000 to 1200 j/kg, we could see some strong outflow winds that move dozens of miles off from the parent thunderstorms. For Tuesday, we will see less moisture and less lift, but still enough for the possibility of a isolated shower in Hudspeth county, otherwise, we start a streak of dry weather.

For Wednesday through Friday we will have a zonal (west to east) flow across New Mexico which will give us breezy to windy afternoons each day. Not too much wind, considering it is April and no real dust concerns at this time. High temperatures for the end of the week will run a few degrees above average.

For Saturday and Sunday, we will see more breezy warm weather on Saturday, but on Sunday we will have windy conditions. A shortwave trough will move across northern New Mexico on Sunday afternoon, that fact along with a decent lee side surface trough will give us windy to very windy conditions Sunday afternoon. Blowing dust would likely also be a problem that day. But before we get to Sunday the next 5 days or so are looking really nice.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Beautiful weather today with unlimited ceilings and light winds. For the afternoon we will have generally light south or southeast winds. The one exception will be KTCS where we could see some low end wind gusts from the southwest. We could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop across area mountains and to the east of KELP. The one fly in the ointment for this evening that we will need to watch for will be some gusty east winds at KELP and KLRU from outflow winds from the thunderstorms to the east of KELP. For tonight we will have light winds and unlimited ceilings and those nice conditions will continue into the morning hours on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The main concern today will be isolated dry lightning as a weak upper-level wave moves through the area with enough moisture to create isolated showers and thunderstorms. Min RH values in the 20s will foster a dry lightning risk. Best storm/shower chances will be for higher elevations and for lowlands east of the Rio Grande. Otherwise, expect warmer weather today with winds topping out around 10 MPH with fair to good vent rates.

Tuesday will be warmer and drier, but winds begin to increase on Wednesday remaining breezy each day through the weekend. Winds will top out around 15 to 20 MPH each afternoon with the strongest winds expected for Thursday. These winds will combine with min RH values in the single digits. Thus, elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Location	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day
	Temperatures				Chance of precipitation
El Paso	57 ℉	87 ℉	60 ℉	88 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Sierra Blanca	48 ℉	82 ℉	52 ℉	83 ℉	30%	20%	10%	0%
Las Cruces	50 ℉	84 ℉	52 ℉	83 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Alamogordo	50 ℉	84 ℉	53 ℉	84 ℉	10%	10%	0%	0%
Cloudcroft	39 ℉	61 ℉	42 ℉	62 ℉	20%	10%	0%	0%
Truth or Consequences	52 ℉	84 ℉	53 ℉	84 ℉	20%	10%	0%	0%
Silver City	48 ℉	77 ℉	47 ℉	74 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Deming	50 ℉	87 ℉	52 ℉	85 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Lordsburg	49 ℉	82 ℉	49 ℉	82 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
West El Paso Metro	59 ℉	86 ℉	60 ℉	86 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Dell City	47 ℉	85 ℉	50 ℉	88 ℉	10%	10%	0%	0%
Fort Hancock	54 ℉	89 ℉	55 ℉	91 ℉	20%	10%	10%	0%
Loma Linda	52 ℉	79 ℉	55 ℉	80 ℉	20%	10%	0%	0%
Fabens	55 ℉	88 ℉	57 ℉	88 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Santa Teresa	53 ℉	85 ℉	55 ℉	85 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
White Sands HQ	55 ℉	86 ℉	60 ℉	85 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Jornada Range	47 ℉	85 ℉	50 ℉	84 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Hatch	48 ℉	87 ℉	50 ℉	86 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Columbus	53 ℉	87 ℉	58 ℉	87 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Orogrande	49 ℉	83 ℉	52 ℉	84 ℉	10%	10%	0%	0%
Mayhill	41 ℉	74 ℉	45 ℉	75 ℉	20%	10%	0%	0%
Mescalero	41 ℉	72 ℉	45 ℉	73 ℉	20%	10%	0%	0%
Timberon	41 ℉	70 ℉	45 ℉	70 ℉	20%	10%	0%	0%
Winston	40 ℉	77 ℉	40 ℉	75 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Hillsboro	50 ℉	82 ℉	51 ℉	81 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Spaceport	47 ℉	84 ℉	47 ℉	84 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Lake Roberts	43 ℉	77 ℉	42 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Hurley	46 ℉	80 ℉	45 ℉	78 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Cliff	46 ℉	83 ℉	45 ℉	81 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Mule Creek	46 ℉	79 ℉	44 ℉	75 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Faywood	49 ℉	79 ℉	48 ℉	78 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Animas	50 ℉	84 ℉	50 ℉	84 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Hachita	48 ℉	83 ℉	50 ℉	83 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Antelope Wells	51 ℉	84 ℉	50 ℉	83 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Cloverdale	53 ℉	77 ℉	50 ℉	79 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.

FORECASTER...15-Brice