Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1029 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Drier air moves back in today to dry out all but Hudspeth county, which could see a shower or two.

- Settle in for warm, dry, and breezy conditions Wednesday through the weekend.

- Fire danger will be on the rise, compounding each day due to the dry and breezy weather and deteriorating state of fuels.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1024 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As a weak shortwave trough comes across today, enough lingering moisture will be present to develop scattered CU this afternoon. Hudspeth Co will have the best moisture with dew points in the 40s, sparking isolated showers and some gusty winds. Otherwise, dry conditions and generally light SW winds are forecast today.

The rest of the forecast period will involve typical spring weather: dry and breezy. A large upper low moves into the northern Rockies on Wed, generating lee troughing along the High Plains. Breezy W winds of about 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are expected, a bit lighter for far west TX. Storm systems continue to track through the northern/central Rockies through the weekend, keeping winds at least breezy each afternoon from the W-SW. The dry and breezy conditions day after day will worsen fire danger into the weekend as fuels continue to dry. The windiest day of the period still looks to be Sunday with the passage of a shortwave, followed by Thursday with gusts to 40 mph. Blowing dust will be a hazard those afternoons.

After the slight chance of showers this afternoon out east, rain chances will be zero under zonal/SW flow aloft. Temperatures remain mild at or slightly above normal into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Some gusts to around 20kts this afternoon from SW, becoming light tonight. Higher clouds at 20-25kft pass overhead, becoming SCT this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1024 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Increasing fire weather concerns are forecast beginning on Wed. Winds become breezy from the W-SW tomorrow at 15-20 mph, creating elevated to near-critical fire wx. Red Flag criteria could be met in isolated spots Wed afternoon (most likely foothills of the Blacks/Sacs), but confidence is too low for any Red Flag Warnings to be issued. Windier conditions are expected on Thu, resulting in more critical fire wx areas. Fuels will be trending upward through midweek under dry and breezy conditions, climbing towards the 90th percentile by the weekend, maybe earlier. ERCs are in worse shape in the Lincoln compared to the Gila, both currently between the 75th and 90th percentiles. Fire Wx Watches may be issued tonight for Thu if fuels trend towards the 90th, since humidity values and winds should be close to or exceed critical thresholds. Continued elevated to near-critical fire wx is forecast into the weekend. Other than a slight chance of showers in Hudspeth this afternoon, rain chances will be zero through the weekend. Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal.

Min RHs range from 10-25% today, then 7-18%. Vent rates will be very good to excellent today, then excellent area-wide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.