Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Triple digit lowland heat again today. Heat Advisory in effect for most of El Paso County and the lower Rio Grande Valley until 9 PM MDT tonight.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible tomorrow and through the weekend, with better chances east of the Rio Grande and in the Sacramento Mountains.

- Moisture will give the area some relief from the heat this weekend. Trending dry and hot again for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The Heat Advisory is still in effect for the eastern lowlands along the Rio Grande Valley until 9 PM MDT tonight. Dry, northwesterly winds and triple digit temperatures remain across the lowlands today as a high pressure system aloft continues to meander overhead, with relative humidities reaching the single digits across southern New Mexico this afternoon.

The eastern Rio Grande Valley will get a chance of relief tomorrow afternoon as moisture attempts to seep into our area. The upper-level ridge will weaken slightly, but it will still be strong enough to influence our weather for tomorrow, so PoPs will be mentionable at best for the El Paso metropolitan area. Hudspeth and Otero Counties will have the best chance for a thunderstorm tomorrow. Outflow winds and a marginal risk of heavy rain are possible with these storms.

High temperatures for the weekend will finally fall to at or just under the triple digit mark as the upper-level ridge moves southwest of us. PoPs for Saturday will be lower than Friday's due to moisture not being sufficient enough for continuous shower and thunderstorm development in the lowlands. Sunday night and into Monday morning look to have a better chance of PoPs for the area, but uncertainty into how heavy the rain will be and where it will fall persists. GFS leans slightly heavier east of the Franklins, while the ECMWF leans lighter on rain and has it falling more west into New Mexico. Nonetheless, both extended models agree that warmer temperatures will return starting Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds back over New Mexico, and with it are drier conditions and more triple digit temperatures for the lowlands. Maybe a Heat Advisory is possible for next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period. No precipitation is expected for KELP, KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU in the period. Skies will range from SKC to SCT-BKN250 with some FEW130 in the afternoon, mainly south of the U.S.-Mexico border. Winds will prevail generally from the west-northwest at 5-10kt in the period, with afternoon gusts up to 20kts across southwestern New Mexico. KTCS could remain gusty overnight as downvalley flow persists.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions today as Min RHs across southern New Mexico will range between 5-10%, especially up in Gila National Forest. Winds will blow from the west-northwest at 5-10 mph. Ventilation rates will range from Good to Excellent. Deep mixing expected today. Min RHs will trend up to 20-35% through Monday.

Moisture will return to our area tomorrow, bringing relief to the very low RHs across the area, as well as a chance for isolated rain showers and storms. Thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday will mainly be east of the Rio Grande and the best chance of rain will be in Hudspeth and Otero Counties, especially in Lincoln National Forest, then they will spread to southwest New Mexico for Sunday and Monday. Lightning and outflow winds are possible with these storms. Forecast trends dry and hot again midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EPZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.