Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow evening into late tomorrow night. Damaging wind gusts appears to be the primary threat.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a mid/upper trough entering the West Coast, with relatively high amplitude ridging downstream across the Plains, with our CWA located toward the eastern edge of the ridge. Current conditions across the region are characterized by temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s with breezy southwesterly winds and a low level stratus deck building in over the region from the southwest. The western trough will push eastward today into the Intermountain West, with the mid level ridge axis pushing east from the High Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. While the mid level ridge axis moving directly overhead would typically lead to warmer temperatures, the stratus deck that has moved in this early morning should linger into early afternoon and will likely lead to slightly cooler high temps this afternoon compared to yesterday (although still in the mid to upper 70s). 15 mph south southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 mph are anticipated yet again this afternoon.

Attention then turns to the severe threat on Thursday (tomorrow). Broad longwave troughing will remain anchored across the western CONUS, with the initial shortwave lifting to the northeast across the Northern Plains and into Canada. Meanwhile, a lower amplitude wave is progged to cross the Southern Rockies and move into the South Central High Plains by Thursday evening. This will yield increased southwesterly deep layer flow over the CWA by Thursday afternoon. At the surface, a strong surface cyclone should develop over northern North Dakota by Thursday morning, moving northeastward into southern Manitoba throughout Thursday afternoon, with an attendant cold front extending southward into SE Nebraska and eastern Kansas and linking with a secondary surface low south of Dodge City by mid to late Thursday afternoon.

Strong southerly low level flow should develop out ahead of these features across our CWA on Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Continued moisture advection should send dew points into the lower 60s (perhaps even mid 60s across the KC metro and points south and west), and with temperatures reaching the upper 70s by mid afternoon, 00z HREF guidance suggests MU CAPE above 2000 J/kg along the cold front to our west, with 1250 to 2000 J/kg of MU CAPE over our CWA. This will be paired with around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer bulk shear, allowing for relatively well organized updrafts capable of producing severe weather.

Forecast soundings ahead of the cold front show substantial convective inhibition in the form of a cap thanks to the EML. Thus, seems likely that storms will have to fire along the cold front where surface convergence is maximized. 06z CAMs suggest that this should happen sometime around 3 pm along the front from NW Iowa into SE Nebraska and into east central KS. Storms may initially be discrete or semi discrete, but with deep layer flow mostly parallel to the front, storms will likely grow upscale relatively quickly into one or more linear segments as they move eastward toward our CWA. The 06z HRRR depicts a well organized line of storms extending from far SW Iowa, through SE Nebraska, and south toward Wichita by around 7 pm. This line is projected to move eastward into far NW Missouri after 7 pm, and through the KC metro sometime in the 9 PM to midnight time frame. Given the likely linear storm mode across our CWA, damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard, but with 25 knots or so of 0-3 km bulk shear, cannot completely rule out some QLCS mesovortices if the shear vector becomes normal to the line. There will be a chance for at least some semi discrete cells or embedded supercellular features within the line earlier in the evening across our far eastern Kansas counties and into far NW Missouri, which explains the 15% hatched hail threat and the 5% tornado threat from the SPC convective outlook across these areas.

In addition to the severe threat, locally moderate rainfall will be possible with PWATs on the order of 1.25 to 1.5" along and ahead of the front on Thursday evening/night. However, the system looks overall progressive enough to limit rainfall totals, with the most recent NBM run giving around a 25% to 45% chance across the CWA for rainfall to exceed 1". That being said, cannot rule out locally higher amounts.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The northern portion of the western mid/upper trough is projected to develop into a cutoff low near the US/Canada border by Friday morning, and will slowly migrate to the northeast through Sunday. Meanwhile, guidance suggests another mid/upper trough entering into the Desert Southwest by late Saturday night, crossing the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains on Sunday and approaching the Ozarks by Sunday evening/night, with strengthening southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading the region. Meanwhile, an associated surface low should develop across the OK Panhandle on Sunday morning, moving to the northeast throughout the day on Sunday, with a warm front lifting northward trough the CWA. This may bring another chance for strong to severe storms, and the latest SPC Day 4-8 outlook highlights the western half or so of the CWA within the 15% risk area for severe weather. Locally moderate rainfall will be possible again, as well.

Chance PoPs (30 to 40%) linger into Monday afternoon, with dry conditions likely returning for Tuesday

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Increasing low level moisture has led to the development of MVFR stratus across the region. This status is expected to slowly lift Wednesday morning, and scattering out after 17Z Wednesday. Clouds may fill back in towards sunset Wednesday evening. Gusty south winds continue through the period.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.