Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather today as a cold front slides through the area. All severe hazards remain possible.

* Additional severe weather looks possible for Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southern NE as the main shortwave trough approaches from the High Plains. Ample moisture advection northward on a 55 kt LLJ will foster additional storm development for the next few hours across southern and eastern NE. As time progresses, supercells will congeal into an MCS while approaching Iowa and far northern MO. Large hail is the primary threat now, but as the transition to an MCS occurs, damaging winds will also become a concern. The highest threat is expected to remain mostly across central and southern IA, but the southern end of the line appears likely to graze far northern MO. Some supercellular characteristics may prevail in this section of the line with the large hail threat continuing into the mid morning hours. Depending how far south the line reaches will determine whether the ongoing flooding across northern MO is exacerbated. The Flood Watch was cancelled with the thought the hardest hit areas will be missed from this morning's activity. The MCS will continue tracking east to northern IL by early afternoon.

The low pressure center will be located over central/eastern IA midday with a cold front extending southwest into far northwest MO and eastern KS. Additional thunderstorm development will take place along the front mid afternoon, likely stretching from west central to northeast MO. Northwestern MO and northeast KS may be skipped by the second round. The extensive squall line will be capable of all severe weather hazards. Some slightly backed low level flow toward northeast MO may aid with a better tornado threat there, otherwise large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards through late afternoon.

The front will clear to the southeast by early evening and the thunderstorm risk will end. Much cooler and drier air arrives with the frontal passage and lows tonight will drop into the 50s. Clear skies and pleasant conditions for Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure will slide east late Friday and return flow will begin Friday night. Low pressure over the central Plains and steepening mid level lapse rates will facilitate the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms as another cold front sinks south. Supercells will be possible initially Saturday before congealing into clusters or complexes and continuing into Saturday night. All severe weather hazards are possible, including flash flooding.

The cold front will pass through and exit to the south by Sunday. Cooler and drier air will usher in with a large trough across the northern and eastern U.S. Weak shortwaves could bring occasional low chances for showers and thunderstorms, but nothing looks too significant at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gusty conditions expected for the duration of the period. Winds gust around 25-30 knots this morning. A cold front moves through the area around midday which shifts winds from SW to NW. Gusts around 30 to intermittent 40 knots are expected. SHRA and TSRA are expected to develop as the front moves through the KC metro; however, better probabilities are expected east of the terminals. Winds dissipate during the overnight.

EAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.