Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering stratiform rain across NW WI this afternoon and evening. Several other lines of showers and storms will form over MN and propagate east through the evening. Some funnels may be embedded with these lines but severe weather is not expected

- Isolated showers across northern MN tomorrow morning with some showers and storms possible across our southern counties tomorrow afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected

- Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Widespread cloud cover has engulfed most of the region this afternoon as a surface low pressure works its way across IA and northeast towards WI. Farther to the northwest we have a cold front marching across the Northern Plains and entering the Lake of the Woods area. Both of these features will be aided by a strong upper level jet with a trough pushing across the Northern Plains sending a lobe of PVA over the region. While the deepest moisture will be confined to the aforementioned surface low pressure we will see some PWATs of over an inch seeping into NW WI. With the moisture in play combined with the synoptic forcing overhead we will see some rain showers spread in from the south through the afternoon and evening hours. Plenty of bulk shear aloft with the jet overhead but fairly limited on instability keeping severe weather at bay. Farther northwest along the cold front we could see another area of precipitation develop with isolated storms possible. Along the front we are seeing some favorable surface vorticity with steep low level lapse rates. This may lead to some funnels developing. The most favorable vorticity is expected to cruise through the Brainerd Lakes region before dissipating after 8PM. Overall, expecting some light rain showers with some embedded storms through the evening with activity tapering off in the early morning hours.

Friday:

The aforementioned cold front will be slowly decaying as it crosses the region on Friday with some lingering showers possible in the morning hours as weak impulses weave through a meridional set up. Temperatures across northern MN will be slightly cooler with a warm front building back in from the south. Highs in the north will be in the upper 60s with mid 70s across our south. Expect gusty west winds with some diurnally driven showers in the afternoon. Better chances for shower and isolated thunderstorm development will be in the late afternoon and evening hours across our south in the warmer air. A small low level jet is expected to increase across southern MN during this time contributing to the precipitation chances. Activity will persist into NW WI until Saturday morning when the jet shifts east and weakens.

Weekend-Monday:

A vertically stacked low pressure will be churning its way through Ontario keeping the region in cyclonic flow aloft. This will keep temperatures cooler than normal with the weekend highs largely in the 60s. Diurnal heating paired with some low level moisture wrapping around the low pressure will lead to isolated showers at times.

Tuesday into Late Week:

Cluster analysis keeps a broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region through the period but ever so slightly shifting east each day. This subtle shift will allow the ridge to the west to weaken a bit and allow for some additional intrusions aloft. Not a great deal agreement between the deterministic guidance on these intrusions with the Euro bringing the first shortwave in on Tuesday reintroducing more widespread showers and possible thunderstorms. For now, the NBM is carrying a 20-40% chance of rain in the afternoon. The pattern may remain active into the late week as an upper level jet digs into the Central Plains allowing for deeper troughing to move across the Northland.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Increasing cloud coverage through this afternoon and evening as a low pressure moves across IA and into WI. Some stratiform rain is expected to develop over NW WI. Farther west a weakening cold front will lead to some additional showers and possible storm development that will move west to east through this afternoon and evening. No severe storms are expected and this activity is largely expected to taper off in the early evening hours. There will still be some lingering light rain chances tomorrow morning for INL. Additionally, widespread gusty winds out of the west are expected for tomorrow.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Southwest winds this afternoon of 10 to 15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts. A few gusts of around 25 kts along the North Shore can't be ruled out but coverage and timing seem rather limited in this environment so we have opted to not issue a Small Craft Advisory. Westerly wind increase tomorrow morning with Small Craft Advisories likely needed across all the Near Shore Waters. Winds will subside overnight before ramping back up to gusts around 25 kts on Saturday. Similar to Friday these winds are expected to taper off in the evening. Sunday, flow changes to out of the northwest with gusts to around 25 kts expected along the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Continued rain chances today with stratiform rain over NW WI and lines of showers and storms moving across northern MN this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected. Tomorrow will see some isolated showers across northern MN in the morning. Rain chances will shift to across our south in the afternoon and evening hours with shower and storm development. Tomorrow will also see and increase in westerly winds with gusts over 30 mph expected. No immediate fire weather concerns in the near term forecast. Sunday will be the day to keep and eye on for our next potentially dry and windy day.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.