Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Isolated seabreeze showers/storms each afternoon through the end of the week, then increasing Saturday through early next week.

- Moderate heat risk daily through the weekend.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible late in the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid-level ridging will be the main driver off our weather for the upcoming period. For the next couple of days, that ridge will remain over the region to keep rain chances limited to isolated seabreeze activity. Temperatures will also stay near normal through the next couple of days.

By the weekend we're watching some movement in this ridge, with a northward and then westward drift in the axis and an overall weakening trend. This will allow an abundance of tropical moisture to shift into the region. Previously, it looked like two separate periods convection, Saturday into Sunday, then Tuesday into Wednesday, but with the more substantial adjustment in ridge position, the entire period from Saturday through Tuesday looks potentially rainy. Most of this is due to a couple of tropical waves, but we're always watching a shortwave in the early part of the week with, as crazy as this sounds, a weak front drifting south into the area. Now, it's mid-June, and front's making it this far south this time of year are pretty rare, but there is some upper level support with a trough digging south. PWAT values throughout this period reach well over 2 inches, approaching 2.5" early next week. (Normal this time of year is around 1.5" with the 90th percentile just under 2".) It's too early too talk too much about rainfall totals for next week, but with PWAT values this high, the rain that does fall will come with pretty high rainfall rates, and would not be surprised to see us get into an ERO early next week.

The middle of next week looks to trend a bit drier as mid-level ridging works to re-establish itself and there's a temporary break in tropical moisture.

The rip current risk is expected to become moderate to high beginning Friday and continuing Saturday. Swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9 seconds, which also coincides with astronomically higher tides and nearing a new moon. This may result in a high rip current risk as well as minor coastal flooding by Friday into the weekend. This is due to a broad low forecasted to develop across the southern gulf, which will lead to a long fetch of east to southeast flow across the gulf toward the TX coast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions is expected to mainly be MVFR through late morning. VFR conditions will then develop for the remainder of the day and evening accompanied by southeasterly winds around 15KT with gusts to 20-25KT. There's a low 20% chance for showers/storms this morning/afternoon near ALI but have left out of TAFs due to low probability. Tonight MVFR CIGs return to all terminals except CRP.

MARINE

Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Seas 3-4 feet expected through Thursday, then increasing to 5-7 feet over the weekend in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the gulf. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend becoming scattered to numerous early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Rain chances through the week will be on the low end (10-15%) through the end of the week, but increase to moderate to even high chances over the weekend and especially into early next week. Wetting rains are looking more likely. RH values will remain elevated and no elevated fire concerns are anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.