Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Well below normal temperatures through Monday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms through Tuesday (through Wednesday AM in the Victoria Crossroads).

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Mainly light scattered showers continue across the area tonight with an embedded moderate shower/thunderstorm associated with H7 energy moving out of Mexico. A similar pattern will continue for the next 48 hours as isentropic lift continues and low/mid level shortwaves impact the region. The best energy right now looks to be Monday afternoon/evening and again on Tuesday. The Victoria Crossroads are currently in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday, but this will be dependent on how much rain falls before Tuesday. So far that region has generally seen less than an inch of rain which would not raise concerns too much for flooding Tuesday, but will have to see how Monday plays out. Additional area average rainfall totals are expected to be around an inch northeast with lower amounts farther south and east. Localized higher totals will remain possible as the mid-level disturbances create more convective bursts the next couple days. One last shortwave pushes north of the region Wednesday keeping rain chances in the Victoria Crossroads before weak ridging develops for the latter half of the week.

Another cool day is expected on Monday, and after seeing the outcome of today's temperatures will cool things a bit for tomorrow. Think mid 60s west and around 70 east. Though with very thick cloud cover and the showers, could still see this not quite being enough. 850 temps do warm a bit as winds become more southeasterly than east- southeasterly, but we wont mix much, so thinking this wont be a player. Temperatures gradually warm as we head through the rest of the week with above normal temperatures returning late-week.

Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern through the early part of the week, but with winds shifting around, should be a bit less than we saw on Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Poor aviation conditions will continue through this period. Mainly a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS are expected overnight and through the day on Monday. Showers will continue off and on through the period with a few thunderstorms possible, mainly for COT/VCT. Winds continue to be north-northeasterly before veering to the east late in the period.

MARINE

Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Winds will continue to gradually subside overnight, but will remain Moderate to fresh through the day on Monday. We'll be near small craft advisory conditions for Monday afternoon, but could stay just below. Daily rain chances (50-70%) will continue through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Rain chances remain elevated through the first half of the week. Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through Monday before gradually warming through the remainder of the week. With elevated RH and expected rains, the fire weather concern is not expected to be elevated through this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...None.