Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered temps on Friday given clouds and backdoor cold front moving in from Canada.

- Lowered temps on Saturday and Sunday given clouds and precip.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increasingly humid conditions through Friday, with the warmest temperatures focused inland.

2) Cold front approaches Saturday and passes through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasingly humid conditions through Friday, with the warmest temperatures focused inland.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure strengthening over the Maritimes on Friday will result in strong easterly-southeasterly flow over the CWA tomorrow. This will usher in a backdoor cold front leading to relatively cooler temps, with highs remaining in the mid-up 70 across the east and lower 80s over inland locations in the west. May not have gone cool enough given the latest guidance and ensemble data but did not want to go too extreme but did want to show a downward trend in temps for highs tomorrow.

Showers expected throughout the day in increasing southerly flow and moisture advection. Cannot rule out some thunder chances tomorrow, mainly over wrn zones where there is a better chance for heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front approaches late Saturday and passes through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A shortwave over the Great Lakes moves into the area Sunday morning. This cold front will bring widespread rain as it moves from west to east, bringing the potential for some embedded thunderstorms that take advantage of some modest CAPE (~100J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of the front.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

This afternoon...VFR all locations through 00z tonight. Light SSE winds.

Tonight...BHB will see MVFR vsbys with a hint of IFR cigs developing after 01z and will drop to LIFR after 06z. BGR will drop to MVFR after 04z and to IFR after 06z. Downeast terminals to remain IFR through 12z Friday. Near calm winds overnight.

Aroostook terminals, VFR through most of the evening, then dropping to MVFR after 08z at FVE and after 09z at CAR, PQI and HUL. Light and variable winds.

Friday...Northern terminals to start off at low MVFR or IFR slowly improving to MVFR in the afternoon. Downeast terminals will remain low MVFR/IFR all day. Light showers at all terminals possible. ESE winds 5-10kts.

Friday night...MVFR or lower due to showers, and possible tstms. SE winds 5-10kts.

Saturday...VFR at most terminals, except for some showers and possible tstms at northeast Aroostook terminals. W winds at 5-10kt.

Saturday Night...VFR. Light S winds.

Sunday-Sunday Night...MVFR, or lower, due to rain showers and potential thunderstorms in the morning and day. S winds with gusts 15-20KT possible Sunday. LLWS possible Sunday night. Monday...MVFR in rain showers. S winds, shifting W/SW by afternoon, with gusts 15-20KT possible.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. W winds, 5-10KT.

MARINE

Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels for all waters tonight through Saturday night. May see visibilities reduced in fog throughout the period. A cold front passes through Sunday, with the potential for showers, possibly a thunderstorm, and a few gusts to 25 kt on coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.