Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk for Thursday through Monday.

- The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a low chance (10%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, which is expected to move over eastern Mexico this weekend. This will result low to medium rain chances on Saturday and Sunday.

- Unsettled weather continues into early next week as remnant tropical moisture interacts with an approaching frontal boundary.

- There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Mid-level ridging will continue to maintain hot days and mild nights through Friday night. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid to upper 90s, except for the 80s at the beaches, with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees. The combination of high humidity and warm to hot temperatures will support a Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk across all of Deep South Texas through the end of the week. Generally, rain-free conditions are expected through Friday. However, there is a low (15% or less) chance of isolated streamer showers or sea breeze convection on Thursday and a slightly better chance on Friday.

The combination of the remnants of Christina and an inverted trough/tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche late Friday will advect deep tropical moisture into Deep South Texas this weekend. Precipitable water values over 2.0 inches will support an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity starting early Saturday. Given the surge of moisture arriving Saturday into Sunday, POPS were bumped up a bit (NBM/ECMWF blend). The highest rain chances of will be on Saturday (30-70%). However, There is uncertainty around timing of showers and thunderstorms. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, and isolated amounts upwards of 1 inch will be possible. Rain wanes Saturday night with another round of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf water and the near the coast. Rain chances are low to moderate (20-50%) for Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a low chance (10%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. However, conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development and the system should move inland over eastern Mexico by late this weekend.

The unsettled weather will continue across the region through early next week as the high moisture content remains in place. A long wave 500mb trough is forecast to swing over the Plains and Texas, pushing a weak cold front across the state before stalling. The latest guidance indicates a potential for a heavy rain Tuesday and/or Wednesday across the CWA. Increased cloud cover and rain chances lead to slightly lower daytime temperatures through the weekend into early next week. However, a Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk will continue across much of Deep South Texas through Monday.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches through at least Friday. Adverse beach conditions, including coastal runup, will be possible as swell increases this weekend with a broad area of low pressure/tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Through 12z Friday....VFR-MVFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF cycle with higher probabilities of VFR conditions taking place during the late morning through the evening hours, and higher probabilities of MVFR conditions taking place during the overnight into the early morning hours.

Winds will continue out of the southeast with speeds between 5-15 kts through the 12z TAF cycle. Winds could gusts as high as 20-25 kts particularly during the afternoon hours as mixing heights increase.

MARINE

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Generally moderate winds and seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through Friday. An enhanced pressure gradient may lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions Thursday and Friday afternoon. Adverse conditions are expected to develop this weekend as swells increase with a tropical wave/broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. Small Craft advisories may be needed on the Gulf waters Friday evening becoming likely on Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase along the Lower Texas Coast Friday night and continue into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BRO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.