Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 610 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning across northwestern portions of Central Alabama.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Details involving timing and hazards will be refined as we get closer.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

(Wednesday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026

Quiet weather is expected to continue in the short term, but with an overall slow warming trend over the next couple of days. Surface ridging is present across the Atlantic Coast from Nova Scotia to SC and WWD back across the Deep South into TX. Atlantic Coast ridging will be pinched by a low pressure system on Wed moving EWD out of the Great Lakes, with weak ridging expected to hang a bit longer across the Deep South. In the upper levels, a weak disturbance will move EWD and out of C AL on Wed, taking extensive high cloudiness with it. At the same time, a low pressure system over the US West Coast will move NEWD across the NRN US Rockies into AB/SK in Canada on Wed/Thu. The flow across the Deep South should become weaker during this time in between systems.

Better moisture will become available as we head into the weekend with more onshore flow and even warmer temperatures. The upper low over SK in Canada will slowly move EWD into MB in Canada over the weekend into Mon. As it does so, shortwave activity will rotate around the main low with low to moderate chances of impacts affecting the Deep South. C AL will transition into a wetter pattern for Fri and through the remainder of the extended as another surface boundary moves into the region. It will likely stall across C AL before moving back NWD with our upper flow across AL becoming more zonal than NW for Sat/Sun. By Mon, the associated surface low should continue NEWD toward the Upper Midwest US. This will increase our chances of a surface front making it through much of AL by Tuesday. Along and ahead of this front, there is a low to medium chance of strong to severe storms for Mon into Mon night. While there is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the main low and other parameters with this system, the probability for impacts is there, and will need refinement as we get closer to Mon.

08

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026

High confidence in surface high pressure maintaining VFR conditions and light winds through this TAF cycle.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

95/Castillo

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather will be the main story through the next few days as we near or exceed critical RH values during the afternoons. With high pressure in place, winds should remain generally light and variable, but elevated fire concerns are still present due to the dry fuels and low humidity values. There will be a shift in the pattern as we head into the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Friday and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.