Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures on Saturday about 10 to 15 degrees below average.

- Gradual warming trend to start the upcoming week, with near to a bit below average high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures then cool a bit for mid-week.

- Some rain showers possible Saturday, then dry until Monday with a more active weather pattern through the work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

As the sun begins its descent towards the horizon, diurnal cu and isolated showers are in the process of dissipating. Windy conditions persist across much of the state as well. They too will diminish as the sun sets, though shouldn't go completely calm tonight. All in all, the forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Upper level analysis places broad low centered along the far northern end of the Manitoba/Ontario border resulting in a west-northwest wind over our area. Upper level analysis places center of upper low near the surface feature, with modestly cyclonic flow over our area. This is resulting in a few light pop-up rain showers starting to show up over the region.

For the rest of this afternoon into this evening, isolated showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm or two remain possible through the afternoon into the early evening before diminishing with loss of day time heating.

A cold front then drops down through the area late tonight into early Saturday morning, bringing a windy and chilly day. High temperatures are forecast to be about 10 to 15 degrees below average. Along with the cool and wind, there may be a few showers developing, albeit light. Quiet weather then expected for Sunday with surface high passing by.

An active pattern remains in place for the upcoming work week as upper low is forecast to loiter around northern Ontario keeping cyclonic northwesterly flow over our area, with a variety of short waves passing through. Temperatures remain near to a little bit below average.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Isolated showers have mostly ended, while winds should diminish over the next few hours, though shouldn't go completely calm tonight. Another windy day is then on tap for Saturday. MVFR ceilings are expected to enter north central and northeastern North Dakota late tonight or Saturday morning. The latest model guidance has kept them further north and east than prior guidance, which would keep MVFR ceilings east of KMOT and north of KJMS. However, uncertainty remains in this forecast and these lower ceilings could wind up further west and south in the end. A few showers are also possible in the north Saturday morning and early afternoon that could produce brief reductions in ceilings and visibility.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.