Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized flooding continues across area rivers, lakes.

- Dry and increasingly warm through mid-week, resulting in slow improvement to ongoing localized flooding.

- Active weather returns later Thursday into Friday with rain and a chance for thunder.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A relatively quiet and precipitation free forecast for the next several days as a deep trough pivots east of the Great Lakes, replaced by higher heights and warmer temperatures. Things become more active by the end of the week as a western CONUS trough pushes into the northern Plains, with deeper moisture surging northward into Michigan.

Shortwave energy will slide across Quebec tonight, keeping any precipitation north of our area. Warmer air will make a quick return to the area Tuesday with increasing southwest winds pushing temperatures well into the 50s and 60s. Temperatures continue their upward push through Thursday with the 850mb thermal ridge building eastward into the Great Lakes and a warm front eventually moving northward through the state. Widespread highs in the 60s and 70s on Thursday, cooler near the lakeshores and over eastern upper. A surge of deeper moisture will push north into the area Thursday/Friday in response to the trough over the plains, with dewpoints climbing toward 60 degf south of the bridge (a little on the humid side for April). Showers and storms become more likely by later Thursday night into Friday with at least some potential for >0.50" of rain per probabilistic guidance. Certainly something to watch given the recent flooding and saturated soils in some areas.

A bit more uncertainty in the forecast for the weekend, as northern Michigan finds itself in between troughs to our east and to our west. With a low amplitude ridge possibly across the Great Lakes. So although things look relatively quiet weatherwise right now, any differences in timing or embedded shortwave energy could result in more unsettled weather. Temperatures look to be seasonable.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Winds remain at 5 to 10kts with occasional G15kts, and are generally NW however lake breeze winds could alter some directions intermittently at KTVC/KAPN. Generally SKC skies will fill in after 03z, however remain AOA 5fkt. Winds will strengthen overnight under a LLJ, leading to WS of 45kts at 2kft. The LLJ will exit and weaken after 12z, with winds gradually diminishing as well.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1229 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Despite water levels and flows continuing to decrease, the saturated soils across northern MI keep the flooding threat across localized low lying areas that have recently experienced river or lake flooding. Portions of Indian River and the Little Sturgeon River in Indian River continue to exhibit areal flooding via NWS Meteorologists. Similarly, National Water Model Flood Inundation Mapping services suggest inundated houses along the Black River and Black Lake, and likely across Wolverine as well (again, some of this is the fact that the water is having a poor time draining from these locations). Nevertheless, conditions should continue to improve for most locations across the board with a several day stretch of dry weather this week. HEFS guidance, along with current, extrapolated hydrographs, show all major river systems with a downward trend through this week, with perhaps only portions of the Manistee River lingering with minor flooding. Next shot at rain will be Friday, with the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Worth keeping an eye on, especially with the sensitive areas, although one would assume some drying of the soils will take place given the warmer temperatures.

APX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ348- 349. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.