Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire weather remains possible this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon thanks to dry and breezy conditions.

- A system pushing across Wednesday could set up more critical fire weather that afternoon with a low chances at storm in our east.

- More active weather could follow this weekend as series of system looks to brush the Northern Panhandles.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Drier and warmer weather continues to greet the Panhandles this afternoon thanks to the still present upper-level ridge. However, latest CAMs are still projecting a weak short-wave to slowly move across the area over the course this afternoon and evening. This short wave will serve two functions, the first being increasing winds speeds for this afternoon. As it stands latest observations where already seeing southerly to southwesterly winds pick up to around 15 to 20 mph with gust upwards of 25 to 30 mph. These winds, alongside some still dry conditions, are currently the main driver in today's elevated fire weather concerns . Thankfully these concerns are not expected to worsen as the secondary function for this trough will see some mid to low-level moisture push in from the south. While chances of this moisture producing much in the way of precipitation is low (10 to 15%), present radar imagery this afternoon has seen a few showers take form to our southwest with potential to the brush the far southern Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, look for this excess moisture to lead to some overnight cloud cover for the southern Panhandles with a low chances at fog for the early morning hours of Tuesday. Moving into Tuesday proper gives us another dry and warm day thanks to the exit of the short-wave and the still present ridge. Winds will stay a bit breezy for the afternoon, however, elevated fire weather will be mostly contained to the far northwestern Panhandles thanks to the expected good overnight recovery of relative humidity values.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Potential for more active weather look to still be holding on for Wednesday as model agreement sees a new upper-level trough dig south out of the Pacific Northwest. This trough will look to set up a more classic Panhandles dry-line scenario where anything west of the dry-line will likely see critical fire weather for the day, while anything east could see showers and thunderstorms. What has been hit and miss with the ongoing model runs is the exact placement of the dry-line for that afternoon. As it stands the present GFS solutions are leaning more on a dry bias that would place most of the Panhandles west of the line. Meanwhile, the global models, like the ECMWF, are giving us a bit more of a fair chances of seeing some active weather. As for the ensembles, they are also leaning towards the drier solution with the NBM only giving us around a 10 to 20% percent chance of seeing precipitation in our far east. Still these chances will need to be watch as present SPC analysis is giving us a Moderate (1 out 5) risk for severe storms that afternoon and evening. As for the fire weather side of things, winds do look to be on the breezy to gusty side with southerly winds looking to reach the 20 to 25 mph range with gust upwards of 40 mph. However, the real threat may prove to be the dry conditions with present agreement seeing areas west of the dry-line have relative humidity values as low as 5 percent. Currently a Fire Weather Watch is in place for the Northwestern Portions of the Panhandles as confidence is high that this area will stay west of the dry-line. These fire weather conditions could look to repeat Thursday as a weak-dry cold front looks to push in that day and keep wind speed up under still dry conditions. However, more active weather could follow for the coming weekend as models see a series of weak trough push south from the Canadian boarder. Otherwise, look for warmer temperatures to hold through Wednesday as highs potentially peak around the upper 80s to low 90s, before cooler temperatures follow behind the front Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

As of this afternoon, latest radar was picking up on some showers to our southwest near Clovis, NM that are slowly tracking northeast into our area. However, present CAMs do not expect any impact to the TAF sites with most having these showers dissipate before they reach KAMA. Instead concerns are more focused on the expected cloud cover the could build during the overnight hours thanks excess moisture now moving in. At this time there is good confidence that CIGs at both KAMA and KDHT will go MVFR around the midnight to 1 AM time frame and likely hold through the early morning hours. Potential is present for this cloud deck to to transition into fog, but confidence is not high enough for it to be included in the current package.

AMA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for OKZ001-002.