Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Low chance for severe thunderstorms in the far southeastern Texas panhandle this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat.

- Further daily potential for thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

- Embedded in the active weather is the potential for hot temperatures on Saturday where some areas may need heat highlights. - Potential for widespread hot conditions starting Wednesday with triple digits highs returning.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A weather system remains the dominate weather feature across the panhandles for today and Friday. Earlier today a cold front passed across much of the panhandles bringing cooler and drier air. This means that much of the panhandles today will see calm and sunny weather. These areas will see breezy north winds which when coupled with the dry conditions will lead to limited elevated fire weather concerns. In the far southeastern Texas panhandles there remains both hotter and more moisture conditions. This will allow at least a low chance for thunderstorms to form later this afternoon. The storms that do form will find a favorable environment with CAPE of 2500-3500 J/Kg and shear of 20 to 40 kt. That means these storms can become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Further, the moisture feeding these storms will be very high allowing for torrential rainfall that can cause flooding. Since these storms would form in the far southeast it is fully possible for them to start in our area and then move out before they become strong to severe. What thunderstorms that manage to form in our area will either cease or push south by the early evening. This will bring a brief window of calmer conditions through the early overnight hours.

Moisture will push back northward during the overnight hours overrunning the cooler air brought in by the cold front. This will be combined with surface easterly winds bringing in some surface moisture but more crucially providing some orographic ascension. Both of these will likely lead to a large low level cloud deck spreading across the panhandles overnight. The lift should prevent the formation of fog underneath this bank of clouds. However, this moisture will work its way underneath mid level instability which opens the door to at least a low chance for nocturnal high based rain showers and thunderstorms. These storms are more likely to occur in the northern combined panhandles as there is increased forcing from the weather system. The overall instability is such that a few of the storms can become strong to severe with large hail being the main threat from such a storm. This round of storms will most likely come to an end during the mid morning hours of Friday as either they dissipate of move east out of the area. The low bank of clouds will then likely lift and scatter out during the later morning hours of Friday. This will allow for ample daytime heating across the panhandles for much of Friday afternoon. This introduces the potential for afternoon thunderstorms in the panhandles. During the early afternoon the forcing to get thunderstorms going is lacking so the chance of anything occurring during this time is very low. If a storm does manage to form during this time shear of 30-40kt and CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/Kg will support supercell mode of convection. Such storms pose mainly a wind and hail risk, but tornados cannot be ruled out. Still the chances are low enough that these thunderstorms are not reflected within the current forecast. The chances for thunderstorms are most likely during the late afternoon and evening associated with the passage of a small weather system. This small weather system most likely will flair thunderstorms in the northwestern panhandles during the late afternoon. These thunderstorms then move east and south turning into a meso-convective system/squall line towards the early evening. This system then passes across the rest of the panhandles through the remainder of the evening into the early overnight hours. The environment during this time will allow this system to produce strong to even damaging wind gusts. Moisture values will be high on Friday with PWATs of 1.25 to 1.5" across the panhandles. This will allow any thunderstorms that does form to produce heavy to torrential rainfall. This is currently allowing a low chance for flash flooding through Friday across the panhandles. The threat from flooding can be higher than normal if it occur overnight making it harder to detect.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The large scale weather system remains the dominate feature across the southern plains through Tuesday. This will continue the stretch of active weather across the panhandles through that time.

Saturday robust south winds will most likely bring in warm and moist air across the panhandles through the early afternoon ahead of the cold front. This has the potential to bring hot temperatures across the panhandles that can see triple digit heat for the hottest spots such as Palo Duro Canyon. The front then pushes through this warm moist air during the later afternoon and evening. This will act as the trigger mechanism to spark off rain showers and thunderstorms. The chance for these storms will increase as the front moves south owing to the higher moisture in the central to southern panhandles. Since the environment is very moist these storms can produce torrential rainfall that can lead to flooding. The saving grace may come from the fronts progressive nature which will limit the duration of these storms over any given spot. However, the front slows down at all it opens that panhandles up to the threat of significant flooding.

For Sunday to Tuesday the eastward shift on the weather system will bring more northwesterly flow across the southern plains. This most likely will keep unstable conditions across the panhandles with the potential for smaller weather system passages. This coupled with the high moisture means active weather of rain showers and thunderstorms can continue through these days. Since the moisture remains high flooding will most likely remain a risk as well.

For mid to late next week high pressure is likely to build into the southern plains as the weather system departs. This would bring increasing heat to the panhandles leading to a sharp increase in the temperatures. This can see widespread 90s to 100s which will be all the worse in the hottest spots such as Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. There is already signals that the heat will be high enough to pose a risk for heat illness.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals for this afternoon and evening. Overnight through the morning of Friday a bank of low clouds builds across much of the panhandles. This will most likely lead to MVFR conditions with a lesser chance for IFR conditions. KAMA and KDHT are more likely to be impacted thus the TAFs reflect the low cloud deck. KGUY has a lesser chance of being impacted thus the low cloud deck is not reflected in the TAF. This cloud bank will most likely lift and scatter during the mid to late morning hours of Friday. Overnight and Friday morning has a low chance to see elevated thunderstorms mainly in the central to northern panhandles threatening KGUY and KDHT. There is the potential for these storms to become strong to severe with large hail being the main threat. These thunderstorms would most likely cease during the mid morning hours. There is then the potential for further thunderstorms during the later afternoon through overnight hours of Friday, but this is currently outside the time range of the TAFs.

AMA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.