beta.weather.gov | National Weather Service

000 FXUS65 KABQ 111753 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures today in the lower elevations of New Mexico (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling or hydration.

- Gusty north winds in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and east winds in the Rio Grande Valley tonight will create hazardous crosswinds on roadways.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher on Friday, especially over central and eastern New Mexico. A few storms may become severe in central New Mexico Friday afternoon. Rounds of showers and storms continue each day through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Very dry conditions around the state along with clear skies will result in impressive diurnal temperature changes tonight. The change will be the most drastic in western NM where upper 40s this morning will make way for temps in the upper 80s and low 90s in the afternoon. The hottest temps today will be in the SE Plains where highs are forecast to top out in the triple digits. The first Heat Advisory of the year was issued for Roswell, where there is a 60% chance that the high reaches 105F.

The cold front currently racing southward across Colorado and Kansas will push into far northeastern NM around sunrise, but its progress will be stalled in the central and northeast highlands thanks to westerly winds aloft mixing down to the surface. North wind gusts as high as 45 mph may occur in the eastern plains during the afternoon hours, but blowing dust shouldn't be a concern given the recent rainfall. After sunset, the front will surge south and westward, pushing through the gaps of the central mtn chain overnight. Forecast wind gusts have trended slightly lower, but given the timing of the frontal passage, wouldn't be surprised if winds outperform guidance.

Moisture in the wake of this frontal passage will provide the energy for showers and storms on Friday afternoon. It would be a slow start to the afternoon with low clouds blanketing eastern NM, but they will eventually clear out and sfc heating should generate scattered convection. Drier convection along the Cont Divide will be falling into a dry boundary layer so rainfall will be harder to come by here and lightning strikes will pose a threat to start new fires given the very dry fuel conditions.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A weak shortwave will interact with anomalously high moisture content on Saturday to generate another round of scattered convection. Rain chances increase in the SW mountains, but storm chances will once again generally favor eastern NM. Another backdoor frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday will replenish moisture across eastern NM, setting the stage for a more active afternoon Sunday. Increasing westerly winds will also enhance shear, favoring the development of at least a few severe storms and pushing low to moderate rain chances westward all the way to the Arizona border. The stronger westerly flow will begin to scour out moisture on Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances trending lower from west to east. However, the advection of dry air aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates in eastern NM, likely elevating the risk of severe storms, particularly in northeast NM as storms come off the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Drier weather is favored mid next week, but that could be short-lived as moisture sneaks back into the area from the south by the end of the workweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist through a majority of the TAF period. Currently, breezy west to northwest winds encompass much of central and western NM, while a backdoor front produces gusty north winds across northeast and east central NM. Both will continue through the afternoon, especially as the front pushes further to the southeast. A strong east canyon wind will develop after 04z tonight, strengthening by 06z. Gusts between 30-40kts are increasingly likely through the overnight hours at KABQ and KSAF. An Airport Weather Warning will almost certainly be needed for KABQ tonight. The progression of the front may induce instances of LLWS at KABQ and KROW after 06z, however confidence in consistent LLWS is not high enough to place in the TAF. After the front pushes through, there is a moderate (50%) chance of MVFR ceilings developing from KSXU to KTCC south to KCVN after 12z and extending to the end of the TAF period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin building over the high terrain at the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Westerly winds will be weaker today, but a few gusts upwards of 30 mph still may occur across western and central NM. Winds will shift around to the north then the east in eastern NM behind a backdoor cold front today. The frontal passage will stall out in the highlands this afternoon, eventually surging south and westward overnight. Moisture will increase significantly behind this front and low clouds are likely to blanket eastern NM Friday morning. Scattered showers and storms will develop Friday and Saturday afternoons, with wetting rain chances favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain. Isolated dry convection along the Continental Divide Friday afternoon could start new fires and generate dry microbursts. Storm chances increase Sunday, with at least isolated coverage extending westward to the Arizona border.

Dry westerly flow will begin to scour out the moisture from west to east early next week, with storm chances once again limited to eastern areas. Drier and hotter weather is likely around the middle of next week, with west to northwest breezes prevailing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Location	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day
	Temperatures				Chance of Precipitation
Farmington......................	90 ℉	54 ℉	95 ℉	59 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Dulce...........................	89 ℉	42 ℉	90 ℉	48 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Cuba............................	88 ℉	52 ℉	88 ℉	57 ℉	0%	0%	5%	0%
Gallup..........................	91 ℉	49 ℉	92 ℉	54 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
El Morro........................	88 ℉	54 ℉	88 ℉	57 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Grants..........................	93 ℉	53 ℉	91 ℉	57 ℉	0%	0%	10%	0%
Quemado.........................	89 ℉	55 ℉	90 ℉	58 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Magdalena.......................	91 ℉	62 ℉	89 ℉	63 ℉	0%	0%	5%	5%
Datil...........................	89 ℉	58 ℉	87 ℉	60 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Reserve.........................	97 ℉	52 ℉	95 ℉	54 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Glenwood........................	101 ℉	55 ℉	98 ℉	57 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Chama...........................	83 ℉	43 ℉	84 ℉	48 ℉	0%	0%	0%	0%
Los Alamos......................	89 ℉	59 ℉	87 ℉	62 ℉	0%	0%	5%	10%
Pecos...........................	91 ℉	52 ℉	86 ℉	54 ℉	0%	0%	5%	10%
Cerro/Questa....................	88 ℉	50 ℉	85 ℉	55 ℉	0%	0%	10%	0%
Red River.......................	79 ℉	41 ℉	76 ℉	45 ℉	0%	0%	10%	0%
Angel Fire......................	82 ℉	40 ℉	80 ℉	45 ℉	0%	0%	5%	5%
Taos............................	91 ℉	49 ℉	88 ℉	53 ℉	0%	0%	0%	5%
Mora............................	88 ℉	49 ℉	82 ℉	52 ℉	0%	0%	20%	10%
Espanola........................	97 ℉	55 ℉	93 ℉	59 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Santa Fe........................	91 ℉	58 ℉	88 ℉	61 ℉	0%	0%	0%	10%
Santa Fe Airport................	94 ℉	56 ℉	91 ℉	59 ℉	0%	0%	0%	10%
Albuquerque Foothills...........	97 ℉	66 ℉	93 ℉	69 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Albuquerque Heights.............	97 ℉	63 ℉	94 ℉	66 ℉	0%	0%	10%	5%
Albuquerque Valley..............	100 ℉	63 ℉	96 ℉	66 ℉	0%	0%	10%	5%
Albuquerque West Mesa...........	98 ℉	63 ℉	95 ℉	67 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Belen...........................	99 ℉	61 ℉	97 ℉	64 ℉	0%	0%	5%	5%
Bernalillo......................	98 ℉	63 ℉	96 ℉	66 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Bosque Farms....................	98 ℉	60 ℉	96 ℉	63 ℉	0%	0%	5%	5%
Corrales........................	99 ℉	63 ℉	96 ℉	67 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Los Lunas.......................	99 ℉	62 ℉	96 ℉	64 ℉	0%	0%	5%	5%
Placitas........................	94 ℉	63 ℉	92 ℉	66 ℉	0%	0%	10%	20%
Rio Rancho......................	98 ℉	63 ℉	95 ℉	66 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Socorro.........................	102 ℉	68 ℉	100 ℉	69 ℉	0%	0%	0%	10%
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........	91 ℉	58 ℉	88 ℉	62 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Tijeras.........................	92 ℉	59 ℉	90 ℉	61 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Edgewood........................	93 ℉	56 ℉	90 ℉	58 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Moriarty/Estancia...............	95 ℉	54 ℉	91 ℉	55 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Clines Corners..................	90 ℉	55 ℉	85 ℉	57 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Mountainair.....................	94 ℉	56 ℉	90 ℉	58 ℉	0%	0%	10%	10%
Gran Quivira....................	93 ℉	57 ℉	89 ℉	58 ℉	0%	0%	20%	20%
Carrizozo.......................	97 ℉	65 ℉	92 ℉	64 ℉	0%	0%	30%	10%
Ruidoso.........................	91 ℉	60 ℉	83 ℉	59 ℉	0%	0%	60%	10%
Capulin.........................	78 ℉	46 ℉	82 ℉	52 ℉	0%	0%	20%	5%
Raton...........................	87 ℉	48 ℉	87 ℉	52 ℉	0%	0%	20%	5%
Springer........................	89 ℉	50 ℉	87 ℉	54 ℉	0%	5%	20%	10%
Las Vegas.......................	91 ℉	53 ℉	84 ℉	56 ℉	0%	5%	10%	10%
Clayton.........................	83 ℉	54 ℉	86 ℉	61 ℉	0%	5%	10%	20%
Roy.............................	86 ℉	53 ℉	83 ℉	57 ℉	0%	0%	20%	30%
Conchas.........................	94 ℉	60 ℉	92 ℉	63 ℉	0%	5%	20%	30%
Santa Rosa......................	95 ℉	59 ℉	89 ℉	60 ℉	0%	10%	20%	20%
Tucumcari.......................	94 ℉	62 ℉	93 ℉	64 ℉	0%	10%	20%	30%
Clovis..........................	100 ℉	65 ℉	92 ℉	65 ℉	0%	5%	10%	20%
Portales........................	102 ℉	65 ℉	93 ℉	65 ℉	0%	5%	10%	20%
Fort Sumner.....................	99 ℉	64 ℉	92 ℉	63 ℉	0%	10%	20%	30%
Roswell.........................	105 ℉	70 ℉	96 ℉	67 ℉	0%	0%	30%	20%
Picacho.........................	100 ℉	63 ℉	89 ℉	61 ℉	0%	0%	60%	20%
Elk.............................	99 ℉	61 ℉	87 ℉	59 ℉	0%	0%	70%	30%

ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238.

SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...77

Area Forecast Discussion